MLB playoff odds: The Brewers are scary good

At 24-14 the Milwaukee Brewers have a four game lead over the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central. And they’ve been this good because they have one of the most complete rosters in MLB this season. Fangraphs has Milwaukee’s starting rotation ranked fifth, it’s bullpen ranked third, and its offense ranked 13th.

While the big names that the Brewers have on their roster are what everyone really pays attention too, it’s their depth that makes them scary. Eric Lauer (2.60/3.59/2.52) and Brandon Woodruff (5.35/3.72/3.39) are their No. 4 and 5 staters respectively but they have each been worth 0.5 fWAR through a combined 13 starts. Milwaukee has two starters with sub-three ERAs and all five of its starters have expected ERA’s (xERA) under 3.60.

As for Milwaukee’s bullpen, the highest xERA — of pitchers with more than 10 innings pitched — is 4.25 and that’s with Brent Suter. Their pen has been dominant, especially with the guys that manager Craig Counsell has heavily relied on. Outside of the guys that have seen 10+ innings though, the numbers start to get a little frightening.

Offensively is where the Brewers are at their weakest, and that’s even adjusted for the deadened offensive environment. The line-up just doesn’t have nearly as much depth on the bench as the bullpen does. Mike Brosseau has easily been the player that’s been utilized the best in his bench role — with only 48 PAs this season — and that’s lead to an OPS of .796. But the rest of these role players haven’t really had any kind of sustainable success; I need more than seven PAs to figure out if Alex Jackson is any good off the bench.

Because of the well constructed roster, and considerable depth, the Brewers have the fourth highest odds of winning the World Series according to FanGraphs. And, so far, I have yet to see anything in how they play the game to tell me that is inaccurate.


Playoff odds

American League

TeamsW-LMake playoffsClinch WCWin divisionWin World Series
Astros25-1497.2%16.1% 81.2%12.2%
Blue Jays20-1886.7%70%16.7%7.3%
White Sox 19-1965.8%13.6% 52.3%3.1%
Rays 23-1563.8%70%6.1% 2.6%
Twins22-1653.4%14.7% 38.7%1.5%
Red Sox16-2226.2% 25.3%0.9%1%
Mariners 17-2214.3%12.9% 1.4% 0.4%
Guardians16-19 13.5% 5.7% 7.9% 0.3%
Rangers17-20 3%2.9% 0.1% 0% 
Royals 14-23 1.2%0.6% 0.7%0% 
Tigers 13-250.9%0.4% 0.5%0%
Athletics16-24 0.2% 0.2% 0% 0%
Orioles15-24 0%0% 0% 0%

National League

TeamsW-L Make playoffsClinch WCWin divisionWin World Series
 Dodgers25-12 96.5%6.8% 60.7% 13.2%
 Brewers24-14 94.9%35.8% 88.2% 10.9%
 Mets26-14 87.6% 26.8% 60.9% 8.3%
 Padres24-14 87.6% 62.2% 25.4% 6.7%
 Giants22-15 74.5% 60.6%13.9%  4.7%
 Braves17-21 62% 37.3%24.7%  6.4%
Phillies 18-2040.8% 29.7% 11.2% 2.8%
 Marlins17-20 14.8% 11.5% 3.3% 0.7%
 Cubs15-22  1.8% 1.4% 0.4% 0%
 Diamondbacks19-21 1.3% 1.3% 0% 0%
Rockies 18-19 0.5% 0.5% 0% 0%
 Reds11-26 0.3% 0.3%0% 0%
 Pirates16-21 0.2% 0.2%0%0% 
 Nationals13-26  0.1% 0.1%0% 0%

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