At 24-14 the Milwaukee Brewers have a four game lead over the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central. And they’ve been this good because they have one of the most complete rosters in MLB this season. Fangraphs has Milwaukee’s starting rotation ranked fifth, it’s bullpen ranked third, and its offense ranked 13th.
While the big names that the Brewers have on their roster are what everyone really pays attention too, it’s their depth that makes them scary. Eric Lauer (2.60/3.59/2.52) and Brandon Woodruff (5.35/3.72/3.39) are their No. 4 and 5 staters respectively but they have each been worth 0.5 fWAR through a combined 13 starts. Milwaukee has two starters with sub-three ERAs and all five of its starters have expected ERA’s (xERA) under 3.60.
As for Milwaukee’s bullpen, the highest xERA — of pitchers with more than 10 innings pitched — is 4.25 and that’s with Brent Suter. Their pen has been dominant, especially with the guys that manager Craig Counsell has heavily relied on. Outside of the guys that have seen 10+ innings though, the numbers start to get a little frightening.
Offensively is where the Brewers are at their weakest, and that’s even adjusted for the deadened offensive environment. The line-up just doesn’t have nearly as much depth on the bench as the bullpen does. Mike Brosseau has easily been the player that’s been utilized the best in his bench role — with only 48 PAs this season — and that’s lead to an OPS of .796. But the rest of these role players haven’t really had any kind of sustainable success; I need more than seven PAs to figure out if Alex Jackson is any good off the bench.
Because of the well constructed roster, and considerable depth, the Brewers have the fourth highest odds of winning the World Series according to FanGraphs. And, so far, I have yet to see anything in how they play the game to tell me that is inaccurate.
Playoff odds
American League
| Teams | W-L | Make playoffs | Clinch WC | Win division | Win World Series |
| Yankees | 28-10 | 98.8% | 22.5% | 76.3% | 13.1% |
| Astros | 25-14 | 97.2% | 16.1% | 81.2% | 12.2% |
| Blue Jays | 20-18 | 86.7% | 70% | 16.7% | 7.3% |
| Angels | 24-16 | 74.8% | 57.5% | 17.3% | 3.4% |
| White Sox | 19-19 | 65.8% | 13.6% | 52.3% | 3.1% |
| Rays | 23-15 | 63.8% | 70% | 6.1% | 2.6% |
| Twins | 22-16 | 53.4% | 14.7% | 38.7% | 1.5% |
| Red Sox | 16-22 | 26.2% | 25.3% | 0.9% | 1% |
| Mariners | 17-22 | 14.3% | 12.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Guardians | 16-19 | 13.5% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 0.3% |
| Rangers | 17-20 | 3% | 2.9% | 0.1% | 0% |
| Royals | 14-23 | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0% |
| Tigers | 13-25 | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0% |
| Athletics | 16-24 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0% | 0% |
| Orioles | 15-24 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
National League
| Teams | W-L | Make playoffs | Clinch WC | Win division | Win World Series |
| Dodgers | 25-12 | 96.5% | 6.8% | 60.7% | 13.2% |
| Brewers | 24-14 | 94.9% | 35.8% | 88.2% | 10.9% |
| Mets | 26-14 | 87.6% | 26.8% | 60.9% | 8.3% |
| Padres | 24-14 | 87.6% | 62.2% | 25.4% | 6.7% |
| Giants | 22-15 | 74.5% | 60.6% | 13.9% | 4.7% |
| Braves | 17-21 | 62% | 37.3% | 24.7% | 6.4% |
| Phillies | 18-20 | 40.8% | 29.7% | 11.2% | 2.8% |
| Cardinals | 20-18 | 37% | 25.7% | 11.3% | 1.4% |
| Marlins | 17-20 | 14.8% | 11.5% | 3.3% | 0.7% |
| Cubs | 15-22 | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0% |
| Diamondbacks | 19-21 | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0% | 0% |
| Rockies | 18-19 | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0% | 0% |
| Reds | 11-26 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0% | 0% |
| Pirates | 16-21 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0% | 0% |
| Nationals | 13-26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0% | 0% |
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